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Agena Newsletter
Agena Newsletter Number 4
AgenaRisk: Bayesian Network and Simulation Technology for Risk Analysis and Decision Support


Martin Neil in Homeland Security magazine

Martin Neil, Agena CTO, appears in "Measuring Risk without Taking One", and talks about the use of AgenaRisk in defence and security projects.
Read more here.

Norman Fenton and Martin Neil's paper presented at Software Engineering Techniques Conference (SET 2006) in Warsaw (17-20 Oct 2006)

The paper titled "Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation" was presented by Łukasz Radliński.
The full paper is here.

Norman Fenton Keynote at CIO Annual Symposium on Software Process Improvement (27 Sept 2006)

Norman Fenton's address was about new directions for software metrics using Bayesian Nets.
For the full article, pictures and demo, read here.

Agena partners Queen Mary on major new EPSRC project

Agena, along with QinetiQ and Motorola, are commercial partners of Queen Mary on a new 3-year EPSRC funded project called DyFUSION: Towards a Novel Universal tool for Modelling and Reasoning under Uncertainty. Agena is providing funding for a CASE studentship.
For full details click here.

Free Download

You can download a free evaluation of AgenaRisk 4.0, which contains the complete functionality, here.


Bayesian nets provide radical improvements in software defect prediction

The developers of any new complex software system will confirm that, no matter how much testing they perform, there will still be plenty of defects (or ‘bugs’) yet to be found. The hope is that, when the software is released, any defects found by end-users will have minimal impact. Hence, the decision about when to stop testing and release the software must always be balanced by the likely number (and criticality) of remaining defects. The business of any commercial software producer can be devastated if they get their release decision wrong.

Click here for the full article.

Avoiding legal errors with simple Bayesian reasoning.

The Society for Expert Witnesses made a video interview with Norman Fenton for their Annual Conference at Studley Castle. The Society was keen to get a proper explanation of the so-called “Prosecutor’s fallacy” whereby lawyers make incorrect deductions about probabilities that are known to have a profound impact on juries. The Society’s Press Officer Tom Magnum had sought out a number of statisticians and probability experts but was unable to get a simple explanation that he felt could be understood by lawyers and judges. He turned to Norman Fenton after reading an article Norman had written with Martin Neil about the subject of probability fallacies in legal reasoning.

Click here for the full article and video.

Modelling Investment Risk

This 9 minute video (windows media format) demonstrates some of the power of Bayesian nets and the AgenaRisk tool using a simple example of stock market investment.

Click here to view the video.

Using AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition to deploy risk models across an organisation

Once you have developed your risk models the natural next step is to deploy them as part of an enterprise level risk application for use throughout your organisation. AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is designed specifically to meet this crucial requirement by providing a software development kit with a number of key components.

Click here to read the full article.

Contact Us

We hope you find our newsletter informative and useful. We welcome any feedback; contact us at
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