Agena Newsletter
Agena Newsletter Number 2
AgenaRisk: Bayesian Network and Simulation Technology for Risk Analysis and Decision Support

Bayesian Analysis Helps Avoid Fatalities in Clinical Drug Trials

Drugs interact in unpredictable ways, and most important, they may simply cause different biochemical reactions from one individual to the next.  Care to guess what the No. 1 cause of acute liver failure is in this country? Acetaminophen, the pain reliever in Tylenol. Click here for the full article in Fortune magazine.

AgenaRisk in Action
Events & Papers

Martin Neil presented a paper called ‘Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis’ at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop "Workshop on Computational Models of Risks to Infrastructure", Primosten, Croatia, May 9 -13, 2006. Download paper here.

Norman Fenton submitted a paper entitled ‘Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment using Dynamic Discretisation’ to the SET 2006 – IFIP working Conference for Software Engineering Techniques.
Conference details can be found here. Download paper here.

Norman Fenton and Martin Neil submitted a paper entitled ‘Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks’ to the IEEE Transaction on Knowledge Engineering. 
Free Download

You can download a free evaluation of AgenaRisk 4.0, which contains the complete functionality, here.

Measuring Your Risks
by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil

By destroying the meteor in the film Armageddon, Bruce Willis saved the world. The probability of the meteor strike was so large, and the consequences so great, that nothing much else mattered except to try to prevent the strike. Combining the ‘probability’ and ‘impact’ of a risk in order to define its ‘size’ is standard practice. But in most cases it’s irrational, and it certainly would not have explained to Bruce Willis and his crew why their mission made sense. To get rational measures of risk you need a causal model (‘risk map’) that links triggers, controls, events, mitigants and consequences.

Click here for the full paper.

Product News

Integration and Customisation: AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition
The AgenaRisk Desktop version offers powerful modelling and analysis capabilities which are sufficient for many users. But what if you want to build your own applications that use AgenaRisk's technology or connect AgenaRisk to your corporate database?

The AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is a powerful and flexible software development kit that allows users to customise AgenaRisk and integrate it with existing applications and databases. More information on AgenaRisk Enterprise Edition is available here.

Customer Showcase

Managing Uncertainty in Microelectronic Obsolescence
QinetiQ are approaching the end of a three-year project using Bayesian analysis to manage the uncertainty associated with monitoring and dealing with obsolescence in microelectronics components.  They used the AgenaRisk engine to do a cost-benefit analysis of different possible ways of dealing with obsolescence incidents. 

Click here to read the full showcase.

Technology Showcase

Using Ranked Nodes in AgenaRisk
Ranked nodes are a very powerful way of encoding the probabilistic relationship between a set of parent nodes and a child node. If all the nodes are defined on subjective scales and there is little quantitative data available to build the child NPT (node probability table), consider making the nodes ranked and then take advantage of a number of special and very useful mathematical expressions.  

here to read the full showcase.

Contact Us

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