Agena Newsletter
Agena Newsletter Number 1
AgenaRisk: Bayesian Network and Simulation Technology for Risk Analysis and Decision Support

"Bayes Rules" Article in The Economist

Bayesian techniques may help to explain how the mind works.  Click here for the full article.

AgenaRisk in Action
Events & Papers

Martin Neil presented "Using Risk Maps to Visually Model & Communicate Risk" at the Institute of Risk Management Forum. Download here.
Martin Neil presented "An Introduction to Bayesian Networks" to DSTL (a branch of the UK Ministry of Defence) Network Skills Group. Download here.

Norman Fenton presented "Improved Software Defect Prediction" at the British Computer Society, Software Process Improvement Network. Download here.

Martin Neil will present "Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks", The First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (AReS), Vienna University of Technology, April 20 - 22 2006. This work is an output  of a collaborative project, eXdecide, between Agena and Queen Mary, University of London. Download here.

Martin Neil invited to present at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop "Workshop on Computational Models of Risks to Infrastructure", Primosten, Croatia, May 9 -13, 2006.
Free Download

You can download a free evaluation of AgenaRisk 4.0, which contains the complete functionality, here.


Welcome to the first edition of the Agena newsletter. We hope you find it informative and useful. We welcome any feedback; contact us at

Visualising Your Risks
by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil

Have you ever had to do a project risk assessment and not known where to start? Have you ever looked at a long list of risks and wondered how you could make more sense of it? You probably won't have been helped by the literature on risk assessment. In the first of a series of articles we show you how to visualise your risks by turning them into what is technically known as a causal model, Bayesian network or ‘risk map’. It’s best to think of risk assessment as telling a story. And it’s a story that will help you understand what your risks really are.

Click here for the full paper.

Product News

AgenaRisk Version 4.0 Released on 17th March 2006
Agena has been designing and applying Bayesian Network and Simulation solutions for the last four years. In that time we have helped field a wide variety of applications to solve decision-support, simulation and risk analysis problems for high-profile clients.

AgenaRisk 4.0 supports exact and approximate inference in hybrid and dynamic networks using dynamic discretization as an alternative to Monte-Carlo simulation.

Up until now AgenaRisk has only been available to a select number of clients in the defence, telecommunications and safety critical sectors. But it is now available, along with a large number of tutorials and example models, as an off-the-shelf software package. For more details visit

An overview presentation of AgenaRisk is available here.

Customer Showcase

Integrity Management Decision-Support using Bayesian Networks
ERA Technology has just completed an intensive program of work for the Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company Ltd (ADGAS). One aspect of this work was providing ADGAS with a decision-support tool to help prioritise vessel inspection regimes.

Click here to read the full showcase.

Technology Showcase

Information Fusion using Bayesian Networks
Information fusion involves combining elements of classification, filtering, measures of effectiveness and temporal dynamics into one model. This can look daunting but is actually fairly straightforward to model in AgenaRisk.

here to read the full showcase.
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